We first discussed ARNA back on May 20th, back when ARNA was $2.90 a share. That is a far cry from today’s close of nearly $7 per share. Take a look at the incredible chart for ARNA over the past few months. Can ARNA maintain this momentum up to the FDA Panel on September 16th? Can the 200% price increase hold? Good questions, and only time will tell…
Chart
Twitter
Facebook
RSS
Email
It may seem asinine but ARNA has further to go. The previous share price was based off of Vivus (VVUS) being the front runner, well now with safety being a major concern with the FDA ARNA is now in the drivers seat. VVUS made it to about $12 per share before the panel, ARNA has 20% more shares so I’ll give this a $9-$10pps going into the panel.
Not to come off as an obvious pumper but VVUS’ panel went 10-6 against if I remember correctly, (9-7 at first) odds are the panel will go positive but that is outside of the method here. With a potential $10 billion market, and the only company with distribution and marketing in place I’d say a $1.5 Billion Market cap isn’t far fetched. We currently stand at a $700M market cap as is today. I am long until FDA in October, secure profits and leave a little in then wait for the sell off.
I guess a few of us sold too early. Oh well. I am thinking EXAS or BIOD could be the next sleeper stocks after ARNA is done. Cancer and diabetes are big issues.
I locked my profit today . I sold my position $ 6.81. I think it may come down right before the CC . I am really suspecious about there CC because they are holding CC after hours so the PPS may go either way. Also I believe investors lock there profit and invest in JAZZ. ARNA has 2.5 more months for the panel. All these are my thoughts. I am expecting good discussions on this matter please.
Head over to the forums to discuss ARNA:
http://www.biorunup.com/forum/arna-fda.html
OREX up $0.75 after hours on Lancet article. http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Orexigen-Therapeutics-prnews-2873083402.html?x=0&.v=1
What do you think about this way to think about ARNA’s stock price:
VIVUS’s pre-panel market cap was around $800M – $900M. ARENA today is $725M. Suggests we have a little further to run before leveling off pre-panel, no?
This analysis of course figures that neither company has any other products that are worth nearly as much as their respective obesity treatments.
If you believe that then you should jump in to OREX… its market cap is still at 244M
Perhaps if locaserin gets nix’d by the panel
A brief note of thanks is in order here for your wonderful web site. I took a chance on ARNA 2 weeks ago when I saw the ticker drop like a rock at the close of the day (upon VVUS news). Had I not taken the time to visit your web page I would have never known to watch for this ticker. ARNA shares are up 97% this morning from my buy in price. If I were forced to choose been CNBC & your web page the choice would be easy. The intelligent speculator would be well advised to visit your web page regularly.
Thank you for taking the time to write that note. I really do appreciate it!
ARNA looks frightening today (in a good way…)